Predictions For The Election

(I was going to post this on election day, but then its shelf-life would be too short.  So I've moved it up a couple of days.)

Here are my predictions for all the races I'm following.  I base these on where the latest polls are going, some hunches and little wild guessing. Let's see how I do! I will be live-blogging on Election Day and will post everything I know as I learn it.

President and Vice President

Barack Obama and Joseph Biden will win the election with 367 Electoral votes and 51.3% of the popular vote.

Of the battleground states: Obama will win: Michigan, Minnesota, Washington, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, and maybe: North Dakota, Florida, Missouri, and North Carolina.

McCain/Palin will lose, but will capture these battleground states: West Virginia, Mississippi, South Dakota, Arizona, and maybe: Montana, Georgia, and Indiana.

U.S. Senate

There's been a lot of talk about whether the Democrats will get a Filibuster-proof supermajority of 60 seats.  I believe that this debate is pointless because a few of either side can always be swayed on some issues.  I predict the Democrats will win 59 seats.

With the 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats and the 49 seats they hold already, that will be an 8-seat pickup.

Those represent 3 seats of retiring Republicans (Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia) and 5 seats whose Republican incumbents will lose: Sununu (New Hampshire), Smith (Oregon), Stevens (Alaska), Dole (North Carolina), and Coleman (Minnesota). Two of those races will be close: North Carolina & Minnesota.

Meanwhile, three other seats will be close but the Republican incumbents will win: Wicker (Mississippi), McConnell (Kentucky), and Chambliss (Georgia).

U.S. House

Democrats will pick up 22 seats, for a 257-178 majority, up from 235-199 now (with one vacancy). That's a wild guess based on polls and splitting the differences.

Locally:

• Obama will get 59% of the Massachusetts vote compared to McCain's 39%.  (2% other.)


• U.S. Senator: John Kerry (60-40)


• State Senator: Mike Moore (54-46).  John Lebeaux will take about 65% of Shrewsbury and maybe win Upton. Every other town will vote for Moore.


• Question 1: No. (55-45)


• Question 2: No. (65-35)


• Question 3: Yes. (52-48)